Musical Chairs for Sectors: Following Market Leadership · Lesson 1 of the course
The Stock Market Sectors and What Drives Each One
The stock market sectors each answer to different forces: rates, commodity prices, consumer spending. Knowing which force moves which sector explains why leadership changes hands.
- 01The Stock Market Sectors and What Drives Each One
- 02Relative Strength Ratios Between a Sector and the Market
- 03Rotating a Watchlist Toward the Leading Sectors
- 04When Sector Rotation Signals Mislead
In this lesson you will learn to
- Name the GICS sectors and the main economic driver behind each
- Work out how much a sector's move adds to the index from its weight
- Use sector funds to follow each sector on a chart
Every company in a large index belongs to exactly one sector. The standard map is the Global Industry Classification Standard, or GICS, maintained by MSCI and S&P Dow Jones Indices. It has 11 sectors. Sector funds, fact sheets and screener filters commonly use it. What matters for a trader is the next step: each sector has its own set of forces pushing on its earnings, and when those forces shift, money shifts with them.
The sectors and their drivers
Some links are tight. Energy producers sell oil and gas, so their profits track those prices almost directly. Others are loose and argued over. The table gives the main pressure on each group, the one to check first when a sector starts moving.
| Sector | Main driver |
|---|---|
| Energy | Oil and gas prices |
| Materials | Prices of metals, chemicals and building materials |
| Financials | Interest rates, the shape of the yield curve and loan losses |
| Utilities | Interest rates, since they borrow heavily and pay steady dividends |
| Real estate | Interest rates and property demand |
| Consumer discretionary | Consumer spending on things people can postpone |
| Consumer staples | Steady demand for food and household goods, and input costs |
| Health care | Demographics, drug approvals and government pricing policy |
| Industrials | Capital spending, freight and the business cycle |
| Information technology | Corporate tech budgets and how the market values distant earnings |
| Communication services | Advertising and subscription spending |
Notice that interest rates show up more than once. Financials, utilities and real estate all answer to rates, and in opposite directions. A bank can earn a wider spread when rates climb. A utility, carrying a lot of debt and valued by many investors for its dividend like a bond substitute, usually looks less attractive when a Treasury pays more, and so a single rate move can lift one of these sectors and sink another on the same day.
Staples and health care sit apart. People buy toothpaste and prescriptions in good years and bad, so these groups are often called defensive stocks. They tend to hold up when the economy slows. They also tend to lag when it booms.
Small sectors can still lead
Index weights differ a lot. A handful of sectors may make up most of a large index while others are a sliver. That makes it tempting to ignore the small ones. Don’t. Leadership is about performance. A small sector can outrun the index by a wide margin while barely moving the index itself, since its weight is too small to drag the average far, which is exactly why a trader who watches only the index level will miss it.
The sector supplied 0.48 of the index’s 2 points. That’s less than a quarter. Yet it beat the index by 10 points. For a stock picker, that second number is the one that counts, because it means the stocks inside the sector were getting a tailwind that the index as a whole never felt. The same arithmetic runs in reverse. A small sector can fall 10% in a month while the index shrugs it off.
Sector funds as the practical gauge
You can’t chart a sector directly. You chart something that holds it. Exchange-traded sector funds exist for each GICS sector, each holding the sector’s stocks in roughly the proportion they carry in the index, and their prices give you a clean, tradable line to watch. Pick one fund family. Stay with it, so every sector gets measured the same way. Funds weighted by market value are the usual choice, and equal-weight versions, which give every member the same slice, are worth a look later as a cross-check on what the typical stock in the group is doing.
Check each fund’s fact sheet for the index it follows and its top holdings. A sector fund can be dominated by a few giant companies. That matters later, when a single stock can make the whole sector look strong.
From drivers to measurement
Knowing the drivers tells you why a sector might lead. It doesn’t tell you whether it is leading. For that you need to compare each sector against the whole market on one chart. The next lesson builds the relative strength ratio for exactly that job. The walkthrough on tracking sector rotation and the swing trading hub cover the same ground from the trading side.
Check your understanding
Lesson quiz
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Show the answer
A: 0.5%. A sector's contribution is its weight times its move, and 0.05 x 10% is 0.5 of a percentage point.
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Show the answer
B: Energy. Oil and gas companies earn their revenue selling those commodities, so profits follow the prices closely.
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Show the answer
C: 11. GICS groups companies into 11 sectors, which are then split into industry groups and industries.
Your score
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People also ask
What are the 11 sectors of the stock market?
Under GICS they are communication services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, information technology, materials, real estate and utilities. Each is divided further into industry groups, industries and sub-industries, so a company sits in exactly one slot at every level.
Which sectors do well when interest rates rise?
There is no guarantee, because rates rise for different reasons. Banks can earn more on loans when rates climb, while utilities and real estate, which borrow heavily and are often valued like bonds, tend to face pressure. The reason behind the move in rates matters as much as the move itself.