Topic
Economics
The economy reaches stock prices through earnings, rates and risk appetite. Cycles, regimes and the releases on the economic calendar that move all three.
Markets price the economy ahead of the data, which is why a stock index can rise through bad news and fall through good. The releases that matter most are the ones that change the expected path of interest rates and profits.
Read the calendar columns first, then the leading series such as jobless claims and new orders. The market regime game puts the same reasoning into practice with scenarios to decide on.
Viewpoints
All viewpoints →-
Myth check
Stop Trying to Name the Market Cycle Stage in Real TimeNobody can name the cycle stage while it is happening; write rules around conditions you can observe now and act on those.
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The case
Watch PMI New Orders Before the Headline PMI NumberRead the new orders component before the headline PMI; it tracks demand that has not yet reached production or earnings.
Walkthroughs
All walkthroughs →Dictionary
Full dictionary →- Defensive stocks
Shares of companies whose demand changes little as the economy grows or shrinks, commonly found in consumer staples, utilities and health care.
- Initial jobless claims
The number of new applications for state unemployment insurance filed in a week, published weekly by the US Department of Labor as an early read on layoffs.
- Market regime
A label for the conditions the market is trading in, such as trending or ranging, calm or volatile, risk-on or risk-off, used to decide which strategies to run and at what size.
Courses, practice and tools
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Free course · Beginner
Boom, Bust, Repeat: A Course on How Markets CycleInvestors and traders who want to understand why stock prices and the economy turn at different times, and what to do about it.
Lessons with a quiz at the end of each
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Free course · Beginner
Macro Weather for Stock Pickers: Economic Data and StocksStock investors who see the economic calendar every week and want to know which releases should change how they look at their own holdings.
Lessons with a quiz at the end of each
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Game · Intermediate
Risk-On, Risk-Off or Sit Tight? A Market Regime GameWhether your risk decisions follow a written plan and the evidence in front of you, and whether you can resist chasing the last move.