Trading and investing education: stock and swing trading, options, prop firms, dividends, earnings, valuation and the economy, with free courses, games and calculators.https://justthemarkets.com/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/your-index-fund-has-a-concentration-problem-too/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/your-index-fund-has-a-concentration-problem-too/Index fund concentration, tested: how cap weighting puts a large slice of a broad fund in its biggest names, and what a fall in those names costs you.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/your-first-stock-portfolio-needs-a-sell-rule/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/your-first-stock-portfolio-needs-a-sell-rule/A first stock portfolio gets most of its care on the buying side. Why selling rules matter more, with a hypothetical $20,000 portfolio trimmed to a 10% cap.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/watch-pmi-new-orders-before-the-headline-pmi/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/watch-pmi-new-orders-before-the-headline-pmi/PMI new orders is the survey component closest to future activity. How the diffusion index works, and why it says more than the headline about earnings.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/the-strong-dollar-impact-on-earnings-shows-up-in-guidance/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/the-strong-dollar-impact-on-earnings-shows-up-in-guidance/The strong dollar impact on earnings is a translation effect you can size before the report, and it resets guidance. The sum on a hypothetical company.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/the-sector-rotation-model-is-tidier-than-any-real-cycle/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/the-sector-rotation-model-is-tidier-than-any-real-cycle/The sector rotation model maps sectors to cycle phases on a neat clock. Real cycles break the order often; measure leadership with relative strength.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/swing-trade-the-leading-stock-in-the-leading-sector/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/swing-trade-the-leading-stock-in-the-leading-sector/Swing trading the leading sector's strongest stock puts the group's move behind you. A hypothetical three-month comparison of leader, laggard and index.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/stop-trying-to-name-the-market-cycle-stage/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/stop-trying-to-name-the-market-cycle-stage/Market cycle stages look clear on a chart drawn afterwards and blurry while they happen. Watch conditions you can see today and write a rule for each.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/stock-warrants-are-dilution-on-a-delay/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/stock-warrants-are-dilution-on-a-delay/Stock warrants dilution explained: why warrants add shares just as the price rises, with full exercise and treasury stock method sums on a hypothetical company.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/smooth-returns-compound-faster/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/smooth-returns-compound-faster/Volatility drag explained with sums: why paths with the same average return end at different balances, and the rough rule for how much the swings cost.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/run-a-reverse-dcf-before-you-build-the-forward-one/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/run-a-reverse-dcf-before-you-build-the-forward-one/A reverse DCF solves for the growth a stock price already assumes. Why to run it before a forward model, with the working on a hypothetical company.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/position-size-for-the-losing-streak-you-have-not-had/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/position-size-for-the-losing-streak-you-have-not-had/Losing streak position size rules for prop evaluations and your own account: how many straight losers each risk level survives, with the sums worked out.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/plan-an-income-portfolio-around-the-next-dividend-cut/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/plan-an-income-portfolio-around-the-next-dividend-cut/A dividend cut in an income portfolio is ordinary over enough years. Budget spending as if one arrives each year, with the sums on a $400,000 portfolio.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/out-of-sample-testing-is-the-only-part-that-counts/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/out-of-sample-testing-is-the-only-part-that-counts/Out of sample testing is the only honest check on a tuned trading method. A hypothetical swing system shows how far tuned results can fall on held-back data.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/options-calendar-spreads-are-a-bet-on-volatility/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/options-calendar-spreads-are-a-bet-on-volatility/Calendar spread options trades are sold as a play on a quiet stock, but the long back-month leg makes them a bet on implied volatility. The sums on a $100 strike.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/holding-a-stock-through-earnings-size-it-by-the-gap/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/holding-a-stock-through-earnings-size-it-by-the-gap/Holding a stock through earnings means the gap sets your loss, the stop does not. How to size the position for the gap, with the sums on a $60,000 account.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/buyback-only-helps-when-share-count-falls/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/buyback-only-helps-when-share-count-falls/The buyback share count test: why gross repurchases overstate the gain when stock awards add new shares, worked through EPS on a hypothetical company.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/averaging-down-moves-break-even-less-than-you-think/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/averaging-down-moves-break-even-less-than-you-think/Averaging down and your break even price: the sums, fees included, showing how little the break-even moves and how much bigger the position gets.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/at-the-market-offering-sells-into-every-rally/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/at-the-market-offering-sells-into-every-rally/How an at-the-market offering feeds new shares into each bounce, and why a falling price makes the same dollar raise more dilutive for holders.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-ratio-spread-hides-a-naked-option-in-the-fine-print/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-ratio-spread-hides-a-naked-option-in-the-fine-print/A ratio spread opened for zero cost still carries an uncovered short option. The 1x2 call ratio worked from $110 to $140, and what caps the risk.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-pullback-on-low-volume-is-the-kind-worth-buying/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-pullback-on-low-volume-is-the-kind-worth-buying/A pullback on low volume following a breakout means holders are resting. Rules for reading it against the average, with the entry, stop and size worked.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-prop-firm-payout-comes-out-of-your-drawdown-cushion/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-prop-firm-payout-comes-out-of-your-drawdown-cushion/A prop firm payout usually lowers your balance while the loss floor stays put. The sum on a hypothetical $100,000 account, and how to resize afterward.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-butterfly-spread-is-the-cheapest-way-to-be-precisely-right/https://justthemarkets.com/viewpoints/a-butterfly-spread-is-the-cheapest-way-to-be-precisely-right/A butterfly spread pays up to 4 to 1 when the stock pins one price at expiration. The full sum on the 95/100/105 calls, with break-evens and the costs.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT